New Survey Says President Trump More Likely to Lose Texas, Than Win the Election
Surveys are never official, but this one predicts Texas turning blue for this first time since 1976.
Let me get this out right from the beginning. I never believe these surveys. We see these all the time where they 'predict' the outcome and sometimes they're dead wrong. For instance in 2016 around this time we heard Hilary Clinton was winning these predictions and we all know how that turned out.
Probably the most famous prediction was when the Chicago Tribune put on the front page that Dewey defeats Truman because the polls were looking good for Truman to lose. Until every vote is counted in the actual election, I'm not a believer. However, this one did catch my attention today.
FiveThirtyEight runs computer simulations based on polling averages. As of Monday, 40,000 simulations were ran and Trump wins the election in 13 out of 100 on average. However, once it gets broken down by state. They say Joe Biden has a 32% chance of winning Texas. So this survey is saying that President Trump is more likely to lose Texas, than win the election.
Starting in 1976, if you won Texas, you won the election. Since Texas has so many electoral votes. However, in 1992, Bill Clinton became the first president in years to win the election, but not win Texas. We will see how things go in the next couple of weeks. These predictions are interesting, but like I said they're almost never 100% accurate. It's an interesting read if you want to check it out.